Switzerland advanced to the Round of 16, while Algeria were eliminated.

Next Matches

Australia vs Egypt

Round of 32 · Dallas / Arlington · Confidence: Medium-Low

This looks like the tightest match of the three. Egypt receive a small edge, but the draw probability is high because both teams are expected to play compact, careful knockout football.

Argentina vs Cabo Verde

Round of 32 · Miami · Confidence: High

Argentina are the strongest favorite among the next three matches because of squad quality, knockout experience, and attacking control. Cabo Verde’s upset path depends on defending deep and forcing the match beyond 70 minutes.

Colombia vs Ghana

Round of 32 · Kansas City · Confidence: Medium

Colombia have the stronger model edge, but Ghana’s transition threat keeps the upset probability alive. This match has a higher volatility score than Argentina vs Cabo Verde.

13 already in the Round of 16, plus 6 still playing for the last 3 places.

Three Round of 32 matches remain before the full last-16 field is complete.

16 from the group stage and 13 from completed Round of 32 matches.

Australia, Egypt, Argentina, Cabo Verde, Colombia and Ghana must win or exit.

Teams With Wins So Far

Latest confirmed Round of 32 winners.

Teams With Losses / Eliminated

Latest confirmed Round of 32 eliminations.

Unbeaten Teams to Watch

Teams with verified no-loss narratives in the latest available reports.

Teams Under Pressure

These teams play in the final Round of 32 matches. One loss means elimination.

Switzerland’s clean win makes them a real bracket threat

Switzerland did not need to dominate the ball to control the match. Their plan was simple and effective: stay compact, absorb Algeria’s pressure, and strike quickly when space opened. That is exactly how Embolo’s early goal arrived, and Ndoye’s second goal gave Switzerland the cushion they needed.

For the prediction model, this matters because Switzerland showed two qualities that travel well in knockout football: defensive discipline and clinical transition play.

Australia and Egypt both chase a first knockout win

Australia enter the match trying to win a World Cup knockout game for the first time. Their coach Tony Popovic has kept confidence high, but Australia are missing Mathew Leckie and Jacob Italiano, which limits their attacking options.

Egypt’s biggest boost is that Mohamed Salah starts despite recent fitness concerns. With Salah and Omar Marmoush in attack, Egypt carry the sharper match-winning threat, but this still looks like one of the tightest fixtures of the round.

Argentina remain favorites, but Cabo Verde’s story is not finished

Argentina arrive as defending champions and clear favorites in Miami. Their group-stage control, experience, and attacking depth make them one of the strongest remaining teams in the tournament.

Cabo Verde, however, are still one of the most compelling stories of FIFA 2026. Their route to an upset is narrow but clear: keep the score level deep into the second half, slow Argentina’s rhythm, and force the match into moments rather than open play.

Colombia have the edge, but Ghana keep the upset risk alive

Colombia enter as the stronger model side because of their form, balance, and attacking quality. They also know that a win would set up a Round of 16 meeting with Switzerland.

Ghana’s route is different. They need the match to become open, fast, and emotional. If Colombia control midfield, the favorite should progress. If Ghana turn the game into a transition battle, the upset probability rises.

Elo gives every team a strength base

Every forecast starts with a team-strength rating. A team that consistently beats strong opponents receives a higher base score. A team that struggles against weaker sides drops. This gives the model a starting point before match-specific details are added.

xG measures how dangerous a team really is

Goals alone can be misleading. Expected goals help us see whether a team is creating high-quality chances or just scoring from rare moments. We use attacking xG, defensive xG, shot quality, and chance prevention to judge both sides of the ball.

Poisson and Dixon-Coles estimate likely scorelines

Football is low-scoring, so the model does not only ask who is better. It also asks what scorelines are realistic. The score model estimates outcomes such as 1–0, 1–1, 2–1, or 2–0, then turns those scorelines into win, draw, and extra-time probabilities.

Monte Carlo simulation plays the tournament thousands of times

One match prediction is not enough for a World Cup forecast. The machine simulates the remaining bracket again and again, giving each team a path-based chance of reaching the next round, the semi-final, the final, and winning the tournament.

Lineups, tactics, travel and weather change the numbers

A strong team is not always equally strong in every match. Player availability, suspensions, likely formations, tactical matchups, rest days, long travel, venue conditions, and weather can all move the forecast before kickoff.

Every prediction gets a confidence level

Some matches are clear. Others are unstable. We label each prediction with a confidence score based on how wide the gap is between the teams, how certain the lineups are, and how much the match depends on one or two key moments.