Analyzing the present trends of Bitcoin, BTC, to deduce where the token is headed in the future.
Bitcoin, or BTC, has danced around $65,000 and around $20,000 in exchange value. Ask the holders of the gold alternative, and it will be obvious that a higher price is a dire need for the community. BTC is doing a better job these days; however, the market trends don’t exactly paint a brighter picture for the digital token.
It begs the question if BTC will ever bounce back to retain the leading title and the highest trading mark. Many factors are picturing themselves to influence the volatility and the macro market of cryptocurrencies. BTC is a major token that will be affected by them in the coming days.
Glassnode prediction about Bitcoin
BTC is currently valued at $29,337.20, a decrease of 0.29% in the last 24 hours. Co-Founder of Glassnode – Yann Allemann and Jan Happel – have estimated that the next rally for the token will only happen if the RSI indicator falls below 37.
The RSI indicator is the Relative Strength Index, posing a value between 0 and 100. The lower the index value, the more bullish a market is considered, crypto in this instance. The higher the index, the more bearish sentiments prevail among the traders. The ideal bullish sentiment is 30, and 100 is for bearish sentiments.
Co-Founders of Glassnode have said that the support level for BTC is $28,500. Demand triggers when the token falls between $28,500 and $27,800. Holdings of bears sway when the RSI is between 37 and 50.
BTC is affecting the demand for altcoins too. The co-founders have stated that their demand will likely get a boost in summer. Until then, the community can only wish for a surprise catalyst to come around. Altcoins include Hedera, Solana, and Toncoin, to mention a few.
Since the price of BTC is in a consolidation, the altcoins will also follow the same trend. Causing a vicious cycle that one is waiting to come to an end.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
BTC has seen its lowest point and is now headed to rise way above that. The token has been witnessing a rise in its price since the beginning of 2023. While there has been constant fluctuation, the fact has not remained hidden that the token is closer to achieving the feat of the $30k milestone. Its circulating supply is 19,447,550 BTC.
The all-time high value of BTC once reached $68,789.63. Bitcoin forecast estimates that the token has the potential to surpass $100k before the end of 2025. What’s keeping the community on the edge is it took a while for the token to cross the $25k figure. Only in March 2023 did the holders find relief in their portfolios. Starting in June 2022, it was a tough call to even pen-paper the number for BTC.
Investors see a rally happening because the next $5k jump came instantly in April 2023. Bitcoin is bullish to spark a rallying trend at any moment. Again, some factors could hamper the calls for disappointment.
Bitcoin ETF Anticipation
Bitcoin ETF anticipation is growing. BTC options and ETH options have come under the limelight. Per the estimates, 17,000 BTC options could expire on August 11, 2023. The max pain point will be $29,500. For ETH, the number comes to $1,850. Their notional value is $510 million and $220 million, respectively.
BTC has been dominating the market largely because investors are under the expectation of the passing of the ETF. ETH deliveries have dropped, but the market is growing its attraction toward both tokens. A joke has also been making rounds with holders claiming that the volatility is reducing to the point where the Chinese stock market looks more sensitive – that is, more volatile than the crypto market.
Growing ETF anticipation of BTC is filling the interest in holders. They are now closely watching the market as expirations reach their epic finale.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
BTC is not doing anyone a favor by sticking to its lethargic range. It could soon change with the expiration of $500M Bitcoin options. The community only expects it to trigger a rally, with confirmation awaited on August 11, 2023. The notional value comes to $510 million.
Options contracts have a put/call ratio numbered 0.42. It showcases that there are more calls than puts. BTC has dominated since there are expectations that the ETF will pass. Implied Volatility, depicted by IV, is seen coming to terms with how the market functions. Simply put, they are getting calmer every day, with traditional stock exchanges losing their drifts.
ETH’s Put/Call ratio is 0.60 – calls are more than puts.
Factors Affecting BTC Movement
CPI gained 0.2% in July last month; however, that had no impact on BTC despite raising the inflation indicator to 3.2%. Experts have commented that Bitcoin is resistant to CPI data irrespective of when it is made public. The Consumer Price Index has also not been able to affect Ether in Asia.
Bitcoin and Ether are likely to retain stability. Per a set of data published by CoinMarketCap, BTC fell 0.39% in the market of Hong Kong in the last 24 hours. It later gained momentum by 0.95%.
Experts have commented that BTC did not move above $30k because of ETF anticipation, the ongoing dispute between the SEC & Ripple, and Coinbase & Binance falling under the radar of regulatory authorities.
As of Friday, there has been uneven trading activity for the top 10 non-stable coins, including Solana and Tron. Solana increased by 1.59%, while Tron saw a rise of 1.15%. The total market cap of the crypto market stands at 0.24% on a downward slipping trend.